The Padma Bridge Rail Link project, which is nearing completion of a new 170-kilometer rail route between Dhaka and Jashore, began partial train operations last November. Currently, three intercity trains and two mail trains are running on the route, but no freight trains are in operation. In the first six months of this year, the rail line generated approximately BDT 370 million in revenue from passenger transport. However, a pre-construction survey had projected that revenue from both passenger and freight transport in the first year would amount to BDT 13.39 billion. The projection also estimated that annual revenue would rise to BDT 14.02 billion by 2024.

The revenue forecast was primarily based on freight transport. The survey indicated that 12 pairs of container trains would operate daily between Bangladesh and India on the new Padma rail route in its first year. It was estimated that freight transport alone would generate BDT 13.46 billion in 2024. However, 10 months after the rail line’s partial inauguration, no international freight trains have operated. Even domestic freight trains have yet to start running. The survey also mentioned that the Payra Deep Sea Port would be operational by 2030, contributing an additional 2.3 trains per day (on average) and increasing annual revenue from freight transport to BDT 18.49 billion. However, the Payra Deep Sea Port project has already been canceled, limiting future opportunities for increased freight transport on the rail line.

Dr. Shamsul Hoque, an infrastructure expert and professor at Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), believes that to make the Padma Bridge Rail Link economically viable, industrialization in the southwestern region should have been ensured in an integrated manner. Speaking to Bonik Barta, he said, “Over BDT 800 billion has been invested in this corridor, combining the Padma Bridge and Padma Bridge Rail Link. The government had promised industrialization and planned development in the southwest. The Padma Bridge was completed two years ago, and it has been nearly a year since the rail line was partially operational. Yet, there is no initiative for industrialization in the region. Such an expensive transportation corridor, like the Padma Bridge, requires industrialization to be economically viable because passenger transport alone cannot recover the investment. Only freight transport can achieve that.”

He further commented, “Overall, I would say that the revenue projections for the Padma Rail Project were overly ambitious. The project should have been implemented with a focus on freight transport. An integrated plan was crucial from the start. It was necessary to assess whether the Payra port, which was supposed to be a major contributor to the rail line, would actually be built. After the rail line project began, the Payra Deep Sea Port was dropped. This raised concerns that the project could become unprofitable. Moreover, the foreign loans taken for this project will burden the country’s economy.”

Since November 1, 2023, partial rail service is operational on the Padma Bridge Rail Link. Currently, three intercity trains and two mail trains are operating. According to railway data, the three intercity trains generated BDT 367 million in revenue from January to June this year. Of this, Sundarban Express earned BDT 146 million, Madhumati Express earned BDT 109.6 million, and Benapole Express earned BDT 111.4 million. Revenue figures for the two mail trains were not available. The three intercity trains currently running on the Padma Bridge previously operated on other routes, so their earnings do not contribute to an overall increase in railway revenue. However, the project’s survey had forecasted that operating passenger trains would generate over BDT 550 million annually.

With the construction of the Padma Bridge and the Mawa Expressway, a well-developed road network has been established between Dhaka and the southern and southwestern regions of the country. Economists are questioning the profitability of operating trains along this same route. They fear that the rail line might be underutilized. In this context, Dr. Moinul Islam, former professor at Chattogram University, told Bonik Barta, “Given the road infrastructure now in place, there is a possibility that the Padma Bridge Rail Link may remain underutilized. In other words, the rail line might not be heavily used, making it less profitable. Loan repayments for the Padma Rail Project will begin in 2025. The revenue from the rail line will not cover the annual loan installments, so the loan repayments will remain a burden for Bangladesh, especially in the initial years.”

The Padma Bridge Rail Link is the largest infrastructure project undertaken in the communications sector during the ousted Awami League government’s tenure. The construction cost is BDT 392.46 billion. To finance the project, Bangladesh secured a $2.67 billion loan from China through Preferential Buyer’s Credit (PBC) at a 2 percent interest rate. The loan has a six-year grace period and a 20-year repayment term. Repayments for the Padma Rail Link loan will start in 2025, with an annual repayment of $135 million, or approximately BDT 12 billion, including interest.

Railway officials remain optimistic, stating that the rail line will have a positive long-term impact on the national economy. Travel time between Dhaka, Khulna, and Jashore will be reduced. The Dhaka-Kolkata rail route will also be faster. In the future, there will be opportunities to operate trains between Dhaka and Gopalganj-Tungipara, Dhaka and Faridpur-Rajbari, and Dhaka-Magura. The rail link will play a crucial role in improving rail connectivity in southern Bangladesh, including Mongla Port and Barishal.