Fugitive dictators never make a comeback to politics

In the 1980s, the Philippines, a Southeast Asian country, faced a severe economic crisis. However, President Marcos showed little concern for the economy, focusing instead on acquiring artworks at great expense. His wife, Imelda Marcos, spent millions of pesos on shoes, gowns, and jewelry. Freedom of expression was nonexistent, and dissent was brutally suppressed. Around 3,000 people were killed by government forces and Marcos loyalists. Marcos gained a reputation as one of the cruelest dictators in international media. Eventually, enraged Filipinos took to the streets, and the movement became a popular uprising. In 1986, under the pressure of this uprising, Marcos fled to Hawaii in the United States. Three years later, he died in exile, devastated by his loss of power.

In the 1980s, the Philippines, a Southeast Asian country, faced a severe economic crisis. However, President Marcos showed little concern for the economy, focusing instead on acquiring artworks at great expense. His wife, Imelda Marcos, spent millions of pesos on shoes, gowns, and jewelry. Freedom of expression was nonexistent, and dissent was brutally suppressed. Around 3,000 people were killed by government forces and Marcos loyalists. Marcos gained a reputation as one of the cruelest dictators in international media. Eventually, enraged Filipinos took to the streets, and the movement became a popular uprising. In 1986, under the pressure of this uprising, Marcos fled to Hawaii in the United States. Three years later, he died in exile, devastated by his loss of power.

The former Pakistani military ruler, General Pervez Musharraf, also faced a tragic end. Musharraf seized power in 1999 through a military coup and was elected President in 2001 through a questionable election. The same scenario occurred in the 2004 election. He encountered trouble when he extended his rule by suspending the Constitution. In late 2007, former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was killed in a suicide bombing, which sparked violence across Pakistan. Musharraf declared a state of emergency and postponed national elections, but it did not save him. He faced public outrage, and his party suffered a disastrous defeat in the 2008 elections. Subsequently, Parliament impeached Musharraf. In response, he resigned and fled to the United Kingdom. Despite various efforts, he could not return to his country or reinstate himself in politics. After traveling between countries, he ultimately died in a hospital in Dubai in 2023.

Many dictators have fled their countries in recent decades due to popular uprisings. However, most have been unable to return to their homeland after leaving. They have lived in exile for the rest of their lives. Among the few who did manage to return, none have been able to reinstate themselves in politics.

When asked about this, an expatriate political scientist, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Bonik Barta, "When authoritarian rulers are ousted in the face of public outrage, most are forced to flee their countries. They try to seek refuge in countries that supported or helped them in the past. However, they fail to secure this refuge in most cases because they no longer hold any significance to these countries. These governments have no plans concerning them. Additionally, major changes in their home country's politics prevent these ousted dictators from reintegrating. The lives of deposed authoritarian rulers end in solitude. Most of them are discarded into the dustbin of history and forced to live in literal obscurity."

Some dictators have managed to return to their home countries. However, none of them have been able to re-enter politics in a significant way. One such dictator is Bolivia's Evo Morales.

Evo Morales was Bolivia's first president from a small indigenous group and initially gained widespread popularity. Some of his reforms were quite well-received. However, his attempts to cling to power by any means eventually presented him as a dictator to the public. After holding power for three consecutive terms, protests erupted in 2019 over allegations of election fraud. Faced with public outrage, he resigned and fled to Mexico. Although he later returned to Bolivia, he was unable to regain a significant position in politics.

Although he was able to return to his homeland, Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet spent the remainder of his life in prison. After losing power, he sought refuge in London. However, on October 10, 1998, he was arrested by London police based on a Spanish court warrant. Despite fighting a legal battle, he was eventually sent back to Chile by the British government. Upon his return, he faced charges related to murder, disappearances, and torture. Even as he died at the age of 91, over 300 criminal cases for human rights violations were still ongoing against him.

Sri Lanka declared itself bankrupt in April 2022. At that time, Gotabaya Rajapaksa was the country's President, and his brother Mahinda Rajapaksa was the prime minister. The Rajapaksa family was held responsible for the severe economic consequences faced by the country. They controlled nearly three-quarters of the nation's economy. Additionally, they faced allegations of media freedom suppression, human rights violations, and various other crimes.

Soon after Sri Lanka went bankrupt, the Rajapaksa family faced public outrage. In May, Mahinda Rajapaksa fled power and sought refuge with the military. In July, Gotabaya Rajapaksa left the country, first heading to the Maldives and then to Singapore, where he was granted a 14-day "visit pass." During his stay there, Gotabaya sent his resignation letter to Sri Lanka on July 14. The Speaker of the Sri Lankan Parliament officially announced his resignation on July 15. He later moved to Thailand and, after about a month and a half, returned to Sri Lanka under "special security." However, Gotabaya Rajapaksa has not yet managed to return to politics.

In 2011, a massive popular uprising began against Tunisian dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, known as the Jasmine Revolution. This revolution eventually gave rise to the Arab Spring. During the uprising, Ben Ali lost his 23-year hold on power and fled with his family to Saudi Arabia. He was unable to return to his country and lived in exile in Saudi Arabia until his death at the age of 83.

Regarding the exiled life of dictators, Associate Professor Kazi Mohammad Mahbobor Rahman from the Department of Political Science at Dhaka University told Bonik Barta, "If the source of state power remains in its previous place, such as if only the Prime Minister or a few individuals are removed while making only minor changes to the power structure, it can pose a challenge. However, if the previous power structure is dismantled in two or three layers, then there is no opportunity for the old rulers to return. Therefore, to prevent the return of dictators, the state structure and source of power must be changed by the revolutionaries."

In the 2014 presidential election in Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani won. However, by September 21, 2021, U.S. President Biden announced that the last group of American soldiers would leave Afghanistan. Immediately after that, the Taliban began a series of city takeover operations. In this sequence of events, they also launched an operation in Kabul. Upon learning that the Taliban had reached the presidential palace, Ashraf Ghani was forced to make the decision to leave the country within a matter of minutes.

However, Ashraf Ghani's situation was different from other fleeing rulers. He did not leave the country empty-handed. Instead, he escaped with cash loaded into four cars and a helicopter, fleeing first to Oman and then to the United Arab Emirates. Since 2021, he has been living in humanitarian exile there. He has not returned to either his home country or politics.

In this context, retired Major General Imamuzzaman Chowdhury (Bir Bikram) told Bonik Barta, "The reason dictators are unable to return to their countries is that the government in power there does not support them. After Marcos left the Philippines, his opposition government came to power. The opposition government would never want him to return to power. Even if the government is favorable, power is something that people do not want to change easily, even among their own ranks. For example, the leaders of the Awami League who went abroad after the death of Bangabandhu in 1975 did not return. Even when the Awami League came to power, its leaders did not want to share power among themselves. Therefore, once they have gone abroad, it is impossible to return even if a favorable government is in place, and it is even less likely if the government is unfavorable. Furthermore, the people generally do not want them to return, so they cannot come back. Even if they do return, they are not rehabilitated in politics because the people do not want them."

The latest addition to the list of those who fled their country in the face of popular uprisings is Bangladesh's Sheikh Hasina. She fled the country following a popular uprising centered around the quota reform movement. Before leaving Bangladesh on August 5, Sheikh Hasina, who had been in power for 15 years, resigned from the position of Prime Minister. She is currently in "safe refuge" in India. Indian media claim that her request for political asylum in the United Kingdom has already been rejected, and the United States has also canceled her visa. Initially, her son, Sajeeb Wazed Joy, announced that neither his mother nor he would return to politics. However, Sheikh Hasina later broke her silence in an interview, expressing her desire to return to politics.

Regarding this, Dr. Tanzimuddin Khan, Professor in the Department of International Relations at Dhaka University, said, "There is a chance of returning if the party is very strong. If not, the chances of returning are minimal. The Awami League is not organizationally strong now; its entire strength is concentrated in one person. This organizational strength can only create disorder but cannot establish a strong position. The amount of violence they have perpetrated has caused them to lose support for several generations. Returning to the country will not be easy for them. The way the Awami League has used violence to suppress movements is unprecedented. Their party has now become a terror for the people."

He said, "Globally, institutions like the International Criminal Court (ICC) exist for the prosecution of genocide. If a trial for genocide against Sheikh Hasina begins, her situation will worsen further. Even if it is later considered as ordinary murder, her situation is unlikely to improve significantly."

 

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